Metrópoli en riesgo: violencia de género y gradiente centro-periferia en los municipios de Nuevo León, 2015–2025

Abstract

This article applies the Gender Violence Risk Index against Women (IRVGM) to the municipalities of Nuevo León for the period 2015–2025. The IRVGM is a composite index integrating four indicators—femicide, domestic violence, rape, and human trafficking—calculated as rates per 100,000 inhabitants from administrative records of the National Public Security Executive Secretariat (SESNSP) and normalized using the min-max method within each state. Eighteen municipalities with populations above 50,000 inhabitants are analyzed individually; the remaining 33 municipalities are aggregated into four functional regions for a regional index calculation. Risk levels are defined using fixed thresholds: very high (>55), high (40-54.9), moderate (25-39.9), and low (<25). Results show that no municipality reaches the low-risk level. Ciénega de Flores leads with the highest IRVGM score, resulting from simultaneous maximum scores in femicide and rape. Four structural findings are identified: first, an inverted center-periphery risk gradient within the Monterrey Metropolitan Zone, where recently expanded municipalities concentrate higher risk than the consolidated core; second, a dissociation between lethal violence and IRVGM, with Monterrey ranking fourth statewide due to its maximum score in human trafficking rather than femicide; third, domestic violence of unprecedented magnitude in the series, with six municipalities exceeding 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants; and fourth, a protection paradox in the coverage of the Gender Violence Alert, whose declared municipalities show in most cases lower composite risk than non-declared ones. The findings confirm that economic development does not operate as a protective factor against gender violence, and that the institutional protection architecture for women in the state has not kept pace with its territorial and demographic expansion.